Our first look at the 2nd quarter GDP shows robust growth of 4%. Economists were expecting around 3% and it was a significant rebound from the 1st quarter. The first quarter was also revised for a second time from a 2.9% decline last month to a less concerning 2.1% decline.
If this positive number holds in revisions (and it should hold positive) then we didn’t slide into a recession, which is technically two straight quarters of GDP decline. While a recession was unlikely, but there are still a lot of headwinds for the economy. The number for the 2ndquarter is promising; however, a good amount of the growth seems to be from increased inventory buying, which could mean that GDP is simply borrowing some of its positive outlook from future quarters’ growth. We will see with the jobs number Friday if the decent, yet tepid trend continues…
